Stuart Webber: Inside track on Buendia & Pukki signing

Delivering a Masterclass for TGG’s Analytics Members, Webber gave a fascinating insight into how the two transfers had come about, starting with Buendia. 

“Our Technical Scouts at the time, Chris Badlan and Mariela (Nisotaki) were looking at his data and his expected assists were off the charts,” Webber said.

“So what we did in the end – and, again, it sometimes can sound a bit basic for people – we said, ‘let’s watch every attacking action he’s done and judge for ourselves,’ because the data is telling us that he should have a lot more assists than he’s got. 

“Let’s have a look, let’s make our own mind up and let’s visualise. If that was our centre forward, would he score? That’s where you then you have to use the data, but also a bit of imagination and go, ‘Okay, if you played for us, would we score that type of chance?

“And when you watched the chances he created, it was absolutely ridiculous.  Basically it’s the fellow up front – it may as well have been me, he was useless. 

“And that led onto a different decision as well, because ultimately the type of chances he created, we probably didn’t have the profile of striker at the time who would score them. 

“At the time, we had Cameron Jerome, who was getting a little bit older, who didn’t really want to run in behind anymore, and Nelson Oliveira, who only wants to come to the ball.

“So we’re like, ‘Well, actually, if Buendia was playing for us today, the expected goals probably wouldn’t go up that much.”

That then led Norwich to Pukki. 

“We signed him (Buendia in the January, but we left him out in Spain until the summer, because we couldn’t break the loan (from Getafe to Cultural Leonesa),” Webber explained.

“So we then spent the last six months of that season looking for a striker who could run in behind. And that led us to Teemu Pukki, because we analyzed all the goals that Pukki scored over three years – and he scored 20 a season Brondby, three years in a row – and the percentage of goals that he scored from the type of assist that Buendia, his trademark creates.

“It looked like a match made in heaven, and obviously it ended up being a match made in heaven, for sure. I think that was the a very, very good example of the two worlds colliding – the data really asking some unobvious questions and then when you saw it with your eyes, it was obvious. 

“But if you just looked at his (Buendia’s) pure stats at the time when we signed him, in terms of goals and assists, you wouldn’t have signed him.”

Find out more about becoming a TGG Analytics Member, and watching more sessions like Stuart Webber’s, click HERE.